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Hillary Can’t Win The Nomination, Obama Can’t Win The General

May 9, 2008

Hillary is in trouble again.  It seems that some are mad because of a comment about how she is in a better position to build a base to win the general election.  It seems she believes that she has the better chance of winning the white vote.  In the minds of the Obama supporters, this makes her a racist.  But the facts are clear, The Democratic party is not the blacks.  Black people make up 12% of this country, and an ever increasing portion of thse blacks are becoming Republicans as they gain educations and start earning more money.  Hillary also has a better shot at winning if one looks at the states that she has won, compared to the states that Obama has won in primaries.  If you look at the electoral votes that each state would provide, Obama loses to McCain by 30 electoral votes while Hillary wins by at least 10 electoral votes.   The only way Hillary can win the nomination is to get Michigan and Florida delegates seated.  The Dems can’t allow this, it would, in their minds, offend the black voters and cause them to sit out the election, The Dems can’t win without the black vote.  But Obama can’t win the general.   What Hillary can, and probably, will do is wait until after the Convention in Denver, then announce that she has decided to run as a write-in candidate.  In normal election cycles this would not be a possibility, but this year is different.  McCain is the presumptive nominee, but he has baggage of his own.  Conservative Republicans can’t see their way clear to voting for McCain because of his left wing leanings.  The only place McCain comes accross as a conservative is national defense.  These divisions in the parties make it possible for a third party or write-in candidate to have a very good chance of winning this year.  Hillary knows this, and Hillary will, most likely, make a bid as a write-in candidate.  She will also, probably, win. 

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